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[Credit where credit is due: she picked Denver to win.  And so, as promised…]

There once was a chap named “Gambrel”,
Who was a mysterious man from the shadows.
This fellow proclaimed he knew damn well
That Carolina was bound to take down the Broncos.
But his pondering friend, Maggie Jean,
(Some folks knew her better as “thingy”)
Predicted that Denver, with defense tough and mean,
Would down Carolina, and win the Super Bowl ring-y.
(When a poet in haste is composing his rhyme
“Y’s” must sometimes be appended to things;
And when written while pressured for time
It is “Johng” and not “John” that he sings.)
In any case, when the final whistle sounded that night,
And Peyton Manning embraced Papa Johng,
It was shown that Maggie was most certainly right;
And old Berthold had got it all wrong!

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Give Denver this: they learned their lesson from their blowout Super Bowl loss two years ago. Unlike the Patriots, who still are vulnerable to the same gameplan the Giants used to beat them twice in the Super Bowl, the Broncos studied their flaws and took steps to correct them.

The upshot is that this Broncos team is far more balanced than the one the Seahawks destroyed. They have the top defense in the league. Their offense, while not as threatening as the record-breaking 2013 one, still can be fairly efficient at times, as in the first half of the AFC Championship game. And while Peyton Manning is physically a ghost of his former self, he is still a genius at reading the defense.

Against New England, Denver’s defense pressured Brady with a four man rush, forcing him to throw before he wanted to, and disrupting his timing. It was a very well-played defensive game.

The thing is that Brady, while indisputably one of the best quarterbacks ever, is not exactly fleet of foot. He has good pocket awareness, but he’s not much of a runner–even though he did have an 11 yard scramble for a first down in the AFC Championship.

Cam Newton presents a very different threat. He is fast, and he is strong. If they try to rush around the tackles and leave the middle of the field open, Newton isn’t going to dance around waiting for someone to come open–he can just take off down the field.

Even worse news for Denver: Carolina runs a play designed to confuse defensive ends and linebackers and slow down the rush. The read-option play is exactly the thing that you use against a good defensive line.

Throughout Denver’s win against the Patriots, I was marveling at how one-dimensional and unoriginal New England’s offense was. They never tried anything other than spreading out their receivers and trying to throw the ball on Denver. Minimal running, no end-arounds, no trick plays like the one they ran against Baltimore last year. It was a very uninspired gameplan.

Then I watched Carolina demolish Arizona with a varied, creative offense that looked like it would be a nightmare to defend against. If the power running doesn’t beat you down, Newton fires bullet passes to fast receivers downfield. If you try stopping that by dropping men into coverage, he runs for the first himself. They throw to the tight end out of running formations; they run wide receiver reverse plays disguised as option plays. It’s the complete package.

If Carolina’s offense has a weakness, it is that it’s not clear how accurate Newton really is. Against the Cardinals, he didn’t need to be–his receivers were consistently getting open and could adjust to make the catch. But if coverage is tight, I’m not sure he can make the pinpoint throws. The only receiver they have who seems capable of winning a physical battle for the ball is Olsen.

Of course, even with good coverage, Newton may still beat Denver with his legs. Of Denver’s 4 losses this year, 3 were to teams with scrambling quarterbacks who could evade the rush: Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger. Newton is like those guys, only faster and stronger.

As for when Denver has the ball…

Peyton Manning has had perhaps the most bizarre year of any quarterback to ever reach the Super Bowl. He’s thrown tons of interceptions to not very many touchdowns, he’s been benched for a stretch… And yet he played one of the best post-seasons of his career, orchestrating clutch drives and big plays when his team needed them.

In the first half of the AFC championship, the Patriots inexplicably decided to play soft coverage and let Manning have easy completions. They also covered his top target with a linebacker. After Manning got two touchdowns thanks to this, they adjusted, and Denver managed only a field goal in the second half.

Manning doesn’t throw the ball with much force anymore. I’ve never heard anyone mention this, but I suspect the reason he chose to go to Denver after his recovery in 2012 is that he knew the thin air would mask this problem a bit. Unfortunately for him, they are not playing the Super Bowl in Denver.

If Carolina is smart, they will play press coverage on Manning’s receivers, stuff the run with their linebackers, and dare Manning to beat them by making throws down the field. My bet would be that he can’t. The Carolina defense has looked vulnerable at times–notably against the other Manning brother–but their total domination of the vaunted Arizona offense shows they can be very tough to throw against.

Denver has done a very good job rebuilding on the fly after a loss that would have demoralized many teams. They still have a lot of players who were in the Super Bowl two years ago, and they are not going to let themselves get humiliated like that again. In the end though, Carolina just has too much talent and too many different ways of winning for Denver to pull it off. Denver won’t go without a fight this time, but they won’t win either.

The pick:

CAROLINA PANTHERS: 31
DENVER BRONCOS: 20

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KC: 17

NE: 14

New England has a ton of injuries, and they don’t match up well with the Chiefs anyway. The last time they played, the Chiefs beat them 41-14.   Brady has had no time in the pocket the last few games, so I don’t see them winning this.

ARZ: 30

GB: 20

People are thinking Green Bay is good because they beat Washington, the winner of the weakest division in football, apart from the AFC South. I’m not buying it, even though I picked them to reach the Super Bowl in the preseason.  Arizona demolished them a few weeks ago.

CAR: 35

SEA: 28

Seattle has been a trendy pick all week to upset the Panthers.  I can see why, and was on the point of picking them myself, but when an upset is this popular, it’s no longer an upset.  The Panthers have been hearing all week about how great Seattle is. The ‘Hawks are tough, but Carolina will ultimately win.

PIT: 13

DEN: 10

All logic says to pick Denver. The Steelers have tons of injuries, Peyton Manning is rested, Denver has a great defense, which is normally the key to playoff success. But there’s something about these Steelers–they have an intangible quality that makes me think they can do it.

 

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[AUTHOR’S NOTE: This is a draft of a song I wrote for a never-finished musical. It was to be sung by a football coach character loosely based on Bill Belichick, Mike Martz and Gus Malzahn.]

A strategist like Clausewitz or Bonaparte,
If he survived into the modern age,
Would choose to demonstrate his art
With a hundred-yard gridiron for a stage.

Take tomorrow’s game for an example:
Should we try to run the ball,
And see if their line’s one we can trample–
Or should we throw it, and not run at all?

I plan to come out in the “I formation”
And fake the handoff to the back.
And they will fall for it on some occasion–
And then we will unleash the deep attack!

Of course, we still will run it now and then,
But with receivers, or perhaps the quarterback:
As is known by all great military men:
“Outnumber ’em at the point of your attack!”

We must disguise formations, put the ‘backs in motion;
To figure out the matchups that are in our favor.
And if we pull that off, I have a notion
That this victory is one our fans will savor.

It’s not just gladiatorial playing–
In spite of what the journalists will claim;
I think I am quite justified in saying:
“Football is a Thinking Man’s Game!”

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At last, football is (almost) back!   I love the Hall of Fame Game weekend.  Sure, the game is barely actual football, and I’ll probably tune out after the first two series, but it’s nice to start the season off with a little appreciation for the sport’s history, followed by a nice, easy re-introduction to watching football.  It would be no fun to just dive right in to the regular season right away, now would it?

Yeah, ok; maybe it would.

Anyway, it’s time once again for my annual haiku football season predictions.  I’m pretty proud of last year’s predictions, in which I correctly picked the Patriots to beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Let’s see how I do this year.

AFC East

Patriots

The Defending Champs

Make it back to the playoffs–

But lose their first game.

Bills

Loaded on defense–

But offense doesn’t seem to

Be “The Real McCoy.”

Dolphins

Improvements will make them

A wild card contender–

But can’t beat the Pats.

Jets

Rex Ryan Redux–

With a lackluster offense

And a strong defense.

AFC North

Ravens

Flacco will surprise;

And they ride his career year

To the Super Bowl.

Steelers

Changes on defense

Will be too much for loaded

“O” to overcome

Bengals

Dalton and Lewis

Get one more Sisyphean

Underwhelming year.

Browns

Can Johnny 12-step

Still be the Cleveland savior?

Wouldn’t bet on it.

AFC South

Colts

It’s just like old times–

A strong regular season

Followed by heartbreak.

Jaguars

They’ll be really bad–

Like, really, really awful–

As in, not too good.

Titans

Mariota is

The next “game changing” QB

Who crashes and burns.

Texans

Strong defensive line

Coupled with decent offense

Makes them a sleeper.

AFC West

Broncos

There’s an old man called

“Peyton Manning”. He’s still smart.

But he should retire…

Chargers

…But “Old Man Rivers”

Still has a few good years left.

Will win Division

Raiders

They say Carr is good,

But I am still skeptical

Of their playoff odds.

Chiefs

The blandest of teams

Has a chance to surprise,but

Can’t beat the Chargers.

NFC East

Cowboys

Can Dez be worth it?

If Romo can stay healthy

They’ll win division

Giants

Odell’s all the rage;

In for a sophomore slump.

Tom Coughlin’s last year.

Redskins

The name is not all

They should consider changing–

Also need new offense.

Eagles

Bradford will not last

And the Sanchez/Tebow show

Will make a comeback.

NFC North

Packers

This is the year they

Break the curse of the Seahawks.

But not the Ravens.

Bears

Crazy like a Fox–

But he can turn teams around.

Will be a fifth seed.

Vikings

Bridgewater breaks out

And they will be very good–

But not playoff good.

Lions

The wheels will fall off;

Johnson’s old, Stafford’s not great–

Back to drawing board.

NFC South

Saints

Will still be a threat

Even without Graham et. al;

But can’t beat Panthers.

Panthers

Will beat the Saints. Twice.

As I predicted above.

What more do you want?

Falcons

New coach improves them,

But won’t overtake Panthers;

Not until next year.

Buccaneers

Can Winston be good

On and off the gridiron?

Probably neither.

NFC West

Seahawks

It’s not picks that kill;

Nor the two straight scoring drives;

It’s that last, long yard.

Cardinals

With ‘Hawks hungover

Will take Division title

And win playoff game.

49ers

Need to win it all

To explain canning Harbaugh.

That will not happen.

Rams

Bills/Jets of the West:

Strong running game and defense,

But no Quarterback.

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[To the tune of “When Britain Really Ruled The Waves”, by Gilbert and Sullivan.]

Miami really ruled the league

In good Coach Shula’s reign;

They won with dominant defense,

And a run-based, ground pound offense;

And got to pop champagne.

Yes, they ran the perfect campaign

In old Coach Shula’s glorious reign!

***

When Belichick beat Martz’s Rams

And the Greatest Turf Show fell–

The Patriot receiving corps

Did nothing too spectaculor—

But did it very well.

The Pats, they built a dynasty

Thanks to their strong, hard-hitting “D”.

***

And when the Bills of Buffalo

Learn from league history;

And their front office does not trade

For wide receivers overpaid

Or some has-been RB–

The Bills can be a dynasty

With good Coach Ryan’s awesome “D”!

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I think it’s pretty funny that the coach I said was overrated is the one who finally took my advice and signed the quarterback I thought was underrated.  With Kelly’s experience using the spread-option, this is definitely a good fit for Tebow.  Sam Bradford is constantly getting injured, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Tebow gets to play if he can make it through training camp.

The Eagles appear to be morphing into some kind of power-running spread offense.  But I do think they are making a lot of good moves this offseason.  Still, Kelly needs to win a playoff game before we can start anointing him as the next great gridiron genius. And that defense is still suspect.

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Every year around this time, I end up writing a bit about mistakes the Buffalo Bills are making, or have made, or are about to make. It’s an inexhaustible source of material, it seems.  This Alonso-for-McCoy trade is not quite as stupid as trading a first round pick for a wide receiver, but it’s close.

A good linebacker is worth more than a great running back.  Good running backs are cheap, and the value increase from a good running back to a great one is small when compared to the price.  Look at New England.  Their running backs are all later draft picks or guys they got cheap in free agency.  Anybody who is halfway competent at running the ball will be more than sufficient, provided he has a good line and a good quarterback.

Add to this the fact that McCoy is on the downswing of his career, and showed signs of decline last season, and it makes the trade look completely insane.

I do like the Cassel trade, though.  He is not the quarterback of the future, but I think he’s better than Manuel.  You can win with a game manager quarterback and a strong defense–Baltimore proved that in 2000.  Rex Ryan almost did with the Jets in ’09-’10.  If they had just traded for Cassel and kept Alonso, I would have felt much better about it.

Oh, and speaking of the Jets: I see they just traded for Brandon Marshall. They think they are so clever because they are giving Geno Smith “weapons”. I have no doubt Smith will squander Marshall’s talents just as he did those of his previously acquired weapons, Eric Decker and Percy Harvin.  Meanwhile, New England has been criticized for years for not giving Brady enough “weapons” at receiver–but I’d have to say it’s working out OK for them.

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In my annual preseason prediction post, I predicted New England would play Seattle for all the marbles.  I also predicted New England would win.  Now, the first part of my prediction has come true, and I’ve been trying the last two weeks to come up with some way for the second part to come true.

It’s frankly hard for me to imagine how the old dynasty from the East can topple the budding dynasty of the West.  In the preseason, I’d actually expected the New England defense to be better than they are.  They’re good, don’t get me wrong–they’re the best one Belichick has had since 2004, the last time he won a title.  But the Seattle defense is awesome; downright scary.

So, how about the offenses? New England has a nice, creative, balanced attack.  Gronkowski is probably the best tight-end ever.  Their running game is very strong, and they seem to have learned that the passing game alone won’t win championships.  That’s a solid team.

But remember, this Seattle defense shut down one of the all time greatest passing offenses last year.  Granted, New England is more balanced than Denver was.  But still,  the Legion of Boom can handle Gronkowski with their own physical freaks on defense, and give Julian Edelman the same kind of nightmare game they gave Wes Welker a year ago.

When Seattle has the ball, New England will probably be able to stack the line against Marshawn Lynch and stop him running the ball.  Belichick is a master at taking away an opposing team’s number one weapon.  And their talented defensive backs can no doubt handle Seattle’s decent but unspectacular receivers one-on-one.

So, that sounds like a stalemate, right?  Seattle’s defense shuts down New England’s offense, and New England’s defense shuts down Seattle’s offense.  We’re looking at a 3-2 affair, are we?

Not quite.  There’s another factor here, which is Russell Wilson’s ability to run–and Tom Brady’s inability to do the same.  New England may stop Lynch, and they may stop Wilson’s throwing, but they’ll be hard pressed to do all that and keep Wilson in the pocket.  Advantage: Seattle.

The deck is clearly stacked against New England.  The match-up favors Seattle. It’s too bad, because this is the most complete team they’ve had since ’04.  They would crush either of the New York teams that broke their hearts their last two trips.  But sadly for them, this Seattle team is way better than those teams.

But even so, there is a path to victory for New England, even though they are distinctly the underdog.  As usual, I’m advising they go run-heavy. (As I did the last time they were in this game.) But not just hammering it between the tackles with Blount and Gray, though some of that is in order. No, they need to try something a bit more devious than that.

I’m thinking “wildcat” formation here–and various other trick plays.  Stuff Seattle has not seen and hasn’t practiced against.  Intersperse that with a few quick, short passes–ideally to Gronkowski, since he’ll hopefully be better able to with stand the hard-hitting style of the Seattle secondary.

Like I advised in my post-mortem on Denver last year:  defenses have the advantage in these games, so if you want to have a chance, you’ve got to be bold, and empty the playbook.  They’re going to be ready for your standard offense; so your only chance is to show them an offense they haven’t seen before.

Bottom line: Seattle is the better team, but Belichick is the better coach, and I’m thinking he’s learned from his mistakes in the last two championships games his teams have lost.  He’s coaching for his legacy in this game, as he has been all this post-season, and as in the Baltimore game, he’s going to pull out all the stops.  The pick here is that the sly old coach has a few more tricks up his sleeve–enough to make my preseason prediction hold up:

NE: 19

SEA: 17

 

 

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NE: 30

IND: 17

New England has run the ball all over the Colts the last two times they’ve met, so I’m expecting them to surprise them by coming out throwing the ball this time.  That’s what I’d do anyway–then run the ball in the second half to wear them down.  I expect Luck to run for quite a few yards, but Revis will shut down the passing game.

SEA: 33

GB: 14

Green Bay is a very good team that has the misfortune of going up against a superb team on the road.  I like the Pack, but the Seattle defense is going to do to them what they did to Denver last year. 

Now that that is out of the way, I want to talk about Peyton Manning.  The guy needs to retire.  I could see it in Denver’s Monday night loss to Cincinnati back in December. Heck, I could already see it some of the dreadful passes he threw last year in the last two games of the postseason.

It’s not that he’s playing badly, exactly.  His knowledge of how to exploit a defense is still unmatched.  It’s a testament to what a great student of the game he is that he managed to lead one of the greatest passing attacks in history last year, in spite of having horribly diminished arm strength. They perfected the screen game. But now he just can’t put the ball where he knows it needs to go.  He’s started off strong the last two years, but he wears down before the season is over. 

It’s sad, because he still has the mental game completely mastered–he’s probably the best ever at reading a defense. But he just can’t physically throw the ball well anymore. He should retire and become Denver’s offensive coordinator.