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At last, football is (almost) back!   I love the Hall of Fame Game weekend.  Sure, the game is barely actual football, and I’ll probably tune out after the first two series, but it’s nice to start the season off with a little appreciation for the sport’s history, followed by a nice, easy re-introduction to watching football.  It would be no fun to just dive right in to the regular season right away, now would it?

Yeah, ok; maybe it would.

Anyway, it’s time once again for my annual haiku football season predictions.  I’m pretty proud of last year’s predictions, in which I correctly picked the Patriots to beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Let’s see how I do this year.

AFC East

Patriots

The Defending Champs

Make it back to the playoffs–

But lose their first game.

Bills

Loaded on defense–

But offense doesn’t seem to

Be “The Real McCoy.”

Dolphins

Improvements will make them

A wild card contender–

But can’t beat the Pats.

Jets

Rex Ryan Redux–

With a lackluster offense

And a strong defense.

AFC North

Ravens

Flacco will surprise;

And they ride his career year

To the Super Bowl.

Steelers

Changes on defense

Will be too much for loaded

“O” to overcome

Bengals

Dalton and Lewis

Get one more Sisyphean

Underwhelming year.

Browns

Can Johnny 12-step

Still be the Cleveland savior?

Wouldn’t bet on it.

AFC South

Colts

It’s just like old times–

A strong regular season

Followed by heartbreak.

Jaguars

They’ll be really bad–

Like, really, really awful–

As in, not too good.

Titans

Mariota is

The next “game changing” QB

Who crashes and burns.

Texans

Strong defensive line

Coupled with decent offense

Makes them a sleeper.

AFC West

Broncos

There’s an old man called

“Peyton Manning”. He’s still smart.

But he should retire…

Chargers

…But “Old Man Rivers”

Still has a few good years left.

Will win Division

Raiders

They say Carr is good,

But I am still skeptical

Of their playoff odds.

Chiefs

The blandest of teams

Has a chance to surprise,but

Can’t beat the Chargers.

NFC East

Cowboys

Can Dez be worth it?

If Romo can stay healthy

They’ll win division

Giants

Odell’s all the rage;

In for a sophomore slump.

Tom Coughlin’s last year.

Redskins

The name is not all

They should consider changing–

Also need new offense.

Eagles

Bradford will not last

And the Sanchez/Tebow show

Will make a comeback.

NFC North

Packers

This is the year they

Break the curse of the Seahawks.

But not the Ravens.

Bears

Crazy like a Fox–

But he can turn teams around.

Will be a fifth seed.

Vikings

Bridgewater breaks out

And they will be very good–

But not playoff good.

Lions

The wheels will fall off;

Johnson’s old, Stafford’s not great–

Back to drawing board.

NFC South

Saints

Will still be a threat

Even without Graham et. al;

But can’t beat Panthers.

Panthers

Will beat the Saints. Twice.

As I predicted above.

What more do you want?

Falcons

New coach improves them,

But won’t overtake Panthers;

Not until next year.

Buccaneers

Can Winston be good

On and off the gridiron?

Probably neither.

NFC West

Seahawks

It’s not picks that kill;

Nor the two straight scoring drives;

It’s that last, long yard.

Cardinals

With ‘Hawks hungover

Will take Division title

And win playoff game.

49ers

Need to win it all

To explain canning Harbaugh.

That will not happen.

Rams

Bills/Jets of the West:

Strong running game and defense,

But no Quarterback.

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Every year around this time, I end up writing a bit about mistakes the Buffalo Bills are making, or have made, or are about to make. It’s an inexhaustible source of material, it seems.  This Alonso-for-McCoy trade is not quite as stupid as trading a first round pick for a wide receiver, but it’s close.

A good linebacker is worth more than a great running back.  Good running backs are cheap, and the value increase from a good running back to a great one is small when compared to the price.  Look at New England.  Their running backs are all later draft picks or guys they got cheap in free agency.  Anybody who is halfway competent at running the ball will be more than sufficient, provided he has a good line and a good quarterback.

Add to this the fact that McCoy is on the downswing of his career, and showed signs of decline last season, and it makes the trade look completely insane.

I do like the Cassel trade, though.  He is not the quarterback of the future, but I think he’s better than Manuel.  You can win with a game manager quarterback and a strong defense–Baltimore proved that in 2000.  Rex Ryan almost did with the Jets in ’09-’10.  If they had just traded for Cassel and kept Alonso, I would have felt much better about it.

Oh, and speaking of the Jets: I see they just traded for Brandon Marshall. They think they are so clever because they are giving Geno Smith “weapons”. I have no doubt Smith will squander Marshall’s talents just as he did those of his previously acquired weapons, Eric Decker and Percy Harvin.  Meanwhile, New England has been criticized for years for not giving Brady enough “weapons” at receiver–but I’d have to say it’s working out OK for them.

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In my annual preseason prediction post, I predicted New England would play Seattle for all the marbles.  I also predicted New England would win.  Now, the first part of my prediction has come true, and I’ve been trying the last two weeks to come up with some way for the second part to come true.

It’s frankly hard for me to imagine how the old dynasty from the East can topple the budding dynasty of the West.  In the preseason, I’d actually expected the New England defense to be better than they are.  They’re good, don’t get me wrong–they’re the best one Belichick has had since 2004, the last time he won a title.  But the Seattle defense is awesome; downright scary.

So, how about the offenses? New England has a nice, creative, balanced attack.  Gronkowski is probably the best tight-end ever.  Their running game is very strong, and they seem to have learned that the passing game alone won’t win championships.  That’s a solid team.

But remember, this Seattle defense shut down one of the all time greatest passing offenses last year.  Granted, New England is more balanced than Denver was.  But still,  the Legion of Boom can handle Gronkowski with their own physical freaks on defense, and give Julian Edelman the same kind of nightmare game they gave Wes Welker a year ago.

When Seattle has the ball, New England will probably be able to stack the line against Marshawn Lynch and stop him running the ball.  Belichick is a master at taking away an opposing team’s number one weapon.  And their talented defensive backs can no doubt handle Seattle’s decent but unspectacular receivers one-on-one.

So, that sounds like a stalemate, right?  Seattle’s defense shuts down New England’s offense, and New England’s defense shuts down Seattle’s offense.  We’re looking at a 3-2 affair, are we?

Not quite.  There’s another factor here, which is Russell Wilson’s ability to run–and Tom Brady’s inability to do the same.  New England may stop Lynch, and they may stop Wilson’s throwing, but they’ll be hard pressed to do all that and keep Wilson in the pocket.  Advantage: Seattle.

The deck is clearly stacked against New England.  The match-up favors Seattle. It’s too bad, because this is the most complete team they’ve had since ’04.  They would crush either of the New York teams that broke their hearts their last two trips.  But sadly for them, this Seattle team is way better than those teams.

But even so, there is a path to victory for New England, even though they are distinctly the underdog.  As usual, I’m advising they go run-heavy. (As I did the last time they were in this game.) But not just hammering it between the tackles with Blount and Gray, though some of that is in order. No, they need to try something a bit more devious than that.

I’m thinking “wildcat” formation here–and various other trick plays.  Stuff Seattle has not seen and hasn’t practiced against.  Intersperse that with a few quick, short passes–ideally to Gronkowski, since he’ll hopefully be better able to with stand the hard-hitting style of the Seattle secondary.

Like I advised in my post-mortem on Denver last year:  defenses have the advantage in these games, so if you want to have a chance, you’ve got to be bold, and empty the playbook.  They’re going to be ready for your standard offense; so your only chance is to show them an offense they haven’t seen before.

Bottom line: Seattle is the better team, but Belichick is the better coach, and I’m thinking he’s learned from his mistakes in the last two championships games his teams have lost.  He’s coaching for his legacy in this game, as he has been all this post-season, and as in the Baltimore game, he’s going to pull out all the stops.  The pick here is that the sly old coach has a few more tricks up his sleeve–enough to make my preseason prediction hold up:

NE: 19

SEA: 17

 

 

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NE: 30

IND: 17

New England has run the ball all over the Colts the last two times they’ve met, so I’m expecting them to surprise them by coming out throwing the ball this time.  That’s what I’d do anyway–then run the ball in the second half to wear them down.  I expect Luck to run for quite a few yards, but Revis will shut down the passing game.

SEA: 33

GB: 14

Green Bay is a very good team that has the misfortune of going up against a superb team on the road.  I like the Pack, but the Seattle defense is going to do to them what they did to Denver last year. 

Now that that is out of the way, I want to talk about Peyton Manning.  The guy needs to retire.  I could see it in Denver’s Monday night loss to Cincinnati back in December. Heck, I could already see it some of the dreadful passes he threw last year in the last two games of the postseason.

It’s not that he’s playing badly, exactly.  His knowledge of how to exploit a defense is still unmatched.  It’s a testament to what a great student of the game he is that he managed to lead one of the greatest passing attacks in history last year, in spite of having horribly diminished arm strength. They perfected the screen game. But now he just can’t put the ball where he knows it needs to go.  He’s started off strong the last two years, but he wears down before the season is over. 

It’s sad, because he still has the mental game completely mastered–he’s probably the best ever at reading a defense. But he just can’t physically throw the ball well anymore. He should retire and become Denver’s offensive coordinator.

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It’s the question on every fan’s mind, what with the slew of arrests and allegations against players for all sorts of atrocious crimes, coupled with the already-known health effects of the game.

Personally, I’m still going to watch it.  It was shameful that the league only suspended Ray Rice for two games, but now that they have fixed that, it seems that some kind of progress is being made.  I don’t blame people who choose to boycott the league but, as I’ve blogged about before, I’ve gotten used to enjoying performances and work by people who were really awful human beings. “Hate the Sinner, Enjoy the Sinner’s Work”, I guess.

It’s not the same, though–it’s tough watching guys who are real scumbags. I think almost every team has at least one guy who has committed some crime.

The problem is, if we assume that it’s the popularity–and thus profitability–of the sport that makes some players feel so arrogant and spoiled that they think they’re above the law, then following some new sport instead will just make those people the same way. There’s really no part of the entertainment industry that’s free from criminals.

I have no doubt that soon–maybe in the next decade–football’s popularity will start to wane.  We’ve just been through the “golden age” of football over the past 15 years, and so a decline is inevitable. As I’ve said before, it will probably be replaced by virtual sports.

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Yeah, I think Buffalo ought to claim Michael Sam off waivers, but at this point I’ve learned that they never do anything I think they should.

I tell them to get a QB who won a playoff game, and instead they go draft E.J. Manuel.  I tell them not to waste their draft picks on wide-receivers and they trade up to draft an injury-prone one. I tell them they need more pass-rushers, and they don’t bother to get any, and their star at the linebacker position gets hurt.

I’m sorry, but I don’t see how my proposal for a team built around Tebow, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson running the ball on option plays, with Brandon Spikes (yes, he is the one intelligent addition they have made) stopping the run, Kahlil Mack filling for Alonso, and Michael Sam rushing the passer could be any worse than what they have now, and if nothing else, it would have a first-round pick next year.

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Atlanta

They return to form,

And will be in the playoffs.

But not the S-B.

Arizona

Could be pretty good.

But are in a division

That is much too strong.

Baltimore

They’re like the Giants;

Championship, followed by

Mediocrity.

Buffalo

Can Sammy Watkins

Make E.J. into a star?

History says no.

Carolina

They won’t be as good.

Had lots of good luck last year.

Cannot count on that.

Chicago

Now they have offense;

But it’s their defense that’s weak–

Ya can’t have it all.

Cincinnati

They will fall apart;

Dalton and Lewis will go;

Green new Megatron.

Cleveland

With Johnny Football

Being the next Broadway Joe,

They might beat the Colts.

Dallas

No “D” in Big D,

At least, that is how it looks;

8 and 8 again.

Denver

Seem to have improved;

But stats say that offense will

Regress to the mean.

Detroit

After collapse last year,

Will be hard to be rebuilt–

But what else is new?

Green Bay

Are underrated;

First game will tell us a lot–

If well-refereed.

Houston

Clowney and Watt will

Be difficult to slow down.

But the offense won’t.

Indianapolis

Andrew Luck’s third year

Will be the one where he breaks

Into the “elite” class.

Jacksonville

They’re gonna be bad.

Like, really, really awful.

As in, not too good.

Kansas City

Still a decent team–

But San Diego and Denver

Are too much for them.

Miami

Buffalo swept them

Last year. That alone is a

Harbinger of doom.

Minnesota

Year of Transition–

“Bridge over Troubled Water”

You might even say.

New England

With improved defense

Tom Brady and Belichick

Finally get four.

New Orleans

Maybe I’m crazy;

But Brees has to decline soon–

And he’s their offense.

 New York Jets

Decker in for shock–

Amazing how good you look

When on Manning’s team.

New York Giants

When they’re counted out

Is when they do their best work;

But can’t beat the ‘Hawks..

Oakland

The AFC West’s

“Other” football team is still

Down in the cellar.

Philadelphia

Who needs DeSean

When they have LeSean and Foles?

Reinvent the screen.

Pittsburgh

Will win division

But more or less by default–

And lose in first round.

San Diego

They will beat Denver,

But lose two to the Raiders

And go 8 and 8.

San Francisco

Kaepernick should not

Throw to the right-side corner

With game on the line.

Seattle

The next Dynasty

Makes it back again this year–

But won’t win title.

St. Louis

“Distractions” can be

overcome, but the Niners

and ‘Hawks cannot.

Tampa Bay

Cool new uniforms

Sadly cannot mask the fact

They’re still pretty bad.

Tennessee

Will be wild-card,

And could even win a game–

But can’t beat the Colts.

Washington

After this season,

They will want to change their name,

They’ll have been so bad.

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This is normally the time of year when I urge them to get Tebow.  But I’ve given up on that.  I think they should draft Sam for much the same reason I thought they should add Tebow: he gets attention. Well, that and he has an awesome football name. ‘Mike” traditionally designates middle linebacker, and “Sam” designates the strongside linebacker.

The press will be interested in the first season of the first openly gay NFL player.  It’s something novel to report on, and so probably his games will get more coverage.  This is exactly what Buffalo needs, as they generally are ignored except when they are playing [read: getting beaten by] New England.

Besides, I have a hunch that, in the wake of the Ritchie Incognito scandal, the league wants to prove its not a place filled by angry people who are intolerant of anyone who is different in any way.  So, again, they’ll want to give more attention and more favorable marketing to the team that drafts him.

Now, it still wouldn’t be worthwhile if he played some position like wide receiver or running back, where there’s a lot of cheap talent to be had.  But linebackers are valuable, and it can’t hurt to have depth at the position. Moreover, I suspect a lot of teams will miss out on him because they are worried he will be a “distraction”, meaning Buffalo may be able to get him for a lower draft pick than they otherwise would for a player of his talents.

He may not be first-round pick material.  But he’s probably worth spending the second rounder on, if they are really worried some other team is trying to get him.  At the least, I would say they should draft him before they draft any receivers or running backs.

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Ok, so I lied a bit when I said no football stuff for a few months.  But really, these are so cool. Check them out. The “Yavin Rebels” one is my favorite

I admit, I’ve always been fascinated by football helmet and uniform design.  In my opinion, this is the best football helmet and uniform design ever.  Interestingly, it was also the very first.

 

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“When an outstanding offensive team meets an outstanding defensive team, the defense will win every time.” So said Hall of Fame football coach Marv Levy in 1974, when coaching the Montreal Alouettes and their top defense against the top-ranked offense of the Edmonton Eskimos for the Grey Cup.  Levy was vindicated when the Alouettes won, 20-7. (The story is recounted on page 194 of Levy’s autobiography, Where Else Would You Rather Be?)

Ironically, Levy was also on the sidelines for perhaps the most famous example of this claim, when his top-ranked offense narrowly lost to New York’s top-ranked defense, in a game that was ultimately decided by neither offense nor defense, but by the kicking game.

Until this year, that was the last time the number one defense played the number one offense for the championship. That bodes well for Seattle and their defense. However, that’s not the only good news for them.  More recent history shows us that powerful offense usually fail to bring home the title.  Look at St. Louis in 2001, Oakland in 2002, Seattle in 2005,  and New England in 2007 and 2011.

Interestingly, the two recent exceptions I can think of to this pattern both involve Peyton Manning. His always-efficient Indianapolis offense beat Chicago’s famed defense in a downpour in 2006, and lost to New Orleans’ record-setting offense in 2009, in a matchup of two teams with strong offenses and suspect defenses.

It’s funny how the knock on Manning has long been that he “chokes”, that he “can’t win the big one” (or, since 2006, that he can’t win it a second time.) The truth is, he’s just been a victim of his own success, of being at the center of some wildly unbalanced teams.  You can have a fair amount of regular season success with that, but come the postseason, you will be defeated by other good teams that know how to take away what you do best.

People thought Tom Brady was particularly “clutch” early in his career, but I think it was more that he played on balanced teams.  Then New England became more one-dimensional in favor of the passing game, and suddenly Brady always fails in the playoffs just like Manning used to.  It’s not that Brady forgot how to play in big games; it’s that other teams simply realized that if they took him away, New England had nothing else.

Denver is about as unbalanced as it gets, and if anyone slows down their passing game, they will find that they have nothing else.

Seattle is almost uniquely suited to slowing Denver down, having the top defensive secondary in the league.  Manning’s arm is pretty weak at this point, so it’s not like he’ll be able to throw the long bomb. (In the AFC championship, he threw some truly awful passes that were complete only by sheer luck. And that was in the thin Denver air.) Their offense is heavily reliant on the short pass, which relies on timing, and which Seattle’s defensive backs will be able to disrupt.

Meanwhile, people keep saying the Denver defense can stop Seattle’s running game, but I am skeptical. I think they look better on the stat sheet than they actually are.  Probably, they seem so good against the run because the lousy teams they played abandoned the run after falling behind to the Manning attack. That won’t be an issue for Seattle.

SEA: 27

 

DEN: 19