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This is normally the time of year when I urge them to get Tebow.  But I’ve given up on that.  I think they should draft Sam for much the same reason I thought they should add Tebow: he gets attention. Well, that and he has an awesome football name. ‘Mike” traditionally designates middle linebacker, and “Sam” designates the strongside linebacker.

The press will be interested in the first season of the first openly gay NFL player.  It’s something novel to report on, and so probably his games will get more coverage.  This is exactly what Buffalo needs, as they generally are ignored except when they are playing [read: getting beaten by] New England.

Besides, I have a hunch that, in the wake of the Ritchie Incognito scandal, the league wants to prove its not a place filled by angry people who are intolerant of anyone who is different in any way.  So, again, they’ll want to give more attention and more favorable marketing to the team that drafts him.

Now, it still wouldn’t be worthwhile if he played some position like wide receiver or running back, where there’s a lot of cheap talent to be had.  But linebackers are valuable, and it can’t hurt to have depth at the position. Moreover, I suspect a lot of teams will miss out on him because they are worried he will be a “distraction”, meaning Buffalo may be able to get him for a lower draft pick than they otherwise would for a player of his talents.

He may not be first-round pick material.  But he’s probably worth spending the second rounder on, if they are really worried some other team is trying to get him.  At the least, I would say they should draft him before they draft any receivers or running backs.

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Ok, so I lied a bit when I said no football stuff for a few months.  But really, these are so cool. Check them out. The “Yavin Rebels” one is my favorite

I admit, I’ve always been fascinated by football helmet and uniform design.  In my opinion, this is the best football helmet and uniform design ever.  Interestingly, it was also the very first.

 

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“When an outstanding offensive team meets an outstanding defensive team, the defense will win every time.” So said Hall of Fame football coach Marv Levy in 1974, when coaching the Montreal Alouettes and their top defense against the top-ranked offense of the Edmonton Eskimos for the Grey Cup.  Levy was vindicated when the Alouettes won, 20-7. (The story is recounted on page 194 of Levy’s autobiography, Where Else Would You Rather Be?)

Ironically, Levy was also on the sidelines for perhaps the most famous example of this claim, when his top-ranked offense narrowly lost to New York’s top-ranked defense, in a game that was ultimately decided by neither offense nor defense, but by the kicking game.

Until this year, that was the last time the number one defense played the number one offense for the championship. That bodes well for Seattle and their defense. However, that’s not the only good news for them.  More recent history shows us that powerful offense usually fail to bring home the title.  Look at St. Louis in 2001, Oakland in 2002, Seattle in 2005,  and New England in 2007 and 2011.

Interestingly, the two recent exceptions I can think of to this pattern both involve Peyton Manning. His always-efficient Indianapolis offense beat Chicago’s famed defense in a downpour in 2006, and lost to New Orleans’ record-setting offense in 2009, in a matchup of two teams with strong offenses and suspect defenses.

It’s funny how the knock on Manning has long been that he “chokes”, that he “can’t win the big one” (or, since 2006, that he can’t win it a second time.) The truth is, he’s just been a victim of his own success, of being at the center of some wildly unbalanced teams.  You can have a fair amount of regular season success with that, but come the postseason, you will be defeated by other good teams that know how to take away what you do best.

People thought Tom Brady was particularly “clutch” early in his career, but I think it was more that he played on balanced teams.  Then New England became more one-dimensional in favor of the passing game, and suddenly Brady always fails in the playoffs just like Manning used to.  It’s not that Brady forgot how to play in big games; it’s that other teams simply realized that if they took him away, New England had nothing else.

Denver is about as unbalanced as it gets, and if anyone slows down their passing game, they will find that they have nothing else.

Seattle is almost uniquely suited to slowing Denver down, having the top defensive secondary in the league.  Manning’s arm is pretty weak at this point, so it’s not like he’ll be able to throw the long bomb. (In the AFC championship, he threw some truly awful passes that were complete only by sheer luck. And that was in the thin Denver air.) Their offense is heavily reliant on the short pass, which relies on timing, and which Seattle’s defensive backs will be able to disrupt.

Meanwhile, people keep saying the Denver defense can stop Seattle’s running game, but I am skeptical. I think they look better on the stat sheet than they actually are.  Probably, they seem so good against the run because the lousy teams they played abandoned the run after falling behind to the Manning attack. That won’t be an issue for Seattle.

SEA: 27

 

DEN: 19

 

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SEA: 23

SF: 22

Kaepernick is not quite as good as Wilson.

  NE: 29

                DEN: 26 (O.T.)

…however, ask me in another half hour, and I might say “Denver by 14” instead.  I went back and forth trying to figure this game out.  But it’s one of the most difficult matchups I can remember.

On the one hand, Denver is exactly the kind of powerful but wildly unbalanced offense that almost always collapses in the playoffs.  It’s not that Manning “chokes” as people always say; it’s just that his teams are usually one-dimensional passing attacks, and when they meet someone who can stop that, they lose.

New England, meanwhile, seems to have finally done what I’ve been saying they should do these past few seasons, and developed a running game.  This is good–for a time, they were the one-dimensional passing team that was always collapsing in the postseason.

The only difficulty is that almost all of their first-stringers on defense, and their top receiving weapon, are injured.  Soon or later, this seems bound to catch up to them.  Thanks to the salary cap, teams just can’t build up depth.  But then again, no one would’ve said they could get even this far with so many injuries, and yet here they are.  So why not take down one of the best offenses in NFL history while they’re at it?

Then, of course, there is the meeting earlier in the season between the two teams. Normally, that would give some indication of what to expect.  But somehow, I doubt New England will spot Denver a 24-point lead again by fumbling three times.  But if they do, I don’t think their offense, sans Gronkowski, can come back.

It could be a shootout.  It could be a defensive struggle.  It could be a blowout by either side.  All I know is it figures to be pretty entertaining.

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It’s that time of the year again! My predictions were uneven last year–I was totally right about Atlanta and Arizona, but was woefully wrong about Chicago and Denver.

Atlanta

They are becoming

Just what the Colts used to be.

Will choke yet again.

Arizona

Larry Fitzgerald

Should be traded for linemen.

Would be a win/win.

Baltimore

The defending champs

Will not make the postseason.

Third in division.

Buffalo

Rebuilding again.

Manuel looks like poor man’s

Kind of Tim Tebow.

Carolina

The Anti-Niners:

Demonstrating the option

Won’t work in the pros.

Chicago

Will Cutler breakthrough?

Can there really be offense

In Windy City?

Cincinnati

Will get past Houston;

And in all the excitement

Will get to New York.

Cleveland

They seem to have been

Re-rebuilding ever since

1999.

Dallas

Changes make them good.

Win their division, first round

And lose in Green Bay.

Denver

Their last playoff loss

Looked just like Manning’s Colts teams.

Will regress this year.

Detroit

Arizona East:

One Hall of Fame receiver,

And just nothing else.

Green Bay

Need to have balance;

But having the best QB

Makes up for a lot.

Houston

It’s make or break time.

Schaub should declare he’s “elite”;

It seems to work well.

Indianapolis

Well, now, that was quick.

They’re right back where they belong:

Can they win big one?

Jacksonville

They’re gonna be bad.

Like, really, really awful.

As in, not too good.

Kansas City

Might surprise people.

But not nearly enough to

Surpass the Broncos.

Miami

Are getting better,

But they are a year away

From winning the East.

Minnesota

This will be the year

Peterson will disappoint.

Can Ponder step up?

New England

In spite of it all

They will still field a good team.

Also, Tim Tebow.

New Orleans

More insane offense,

But will the defense improve

Or still let them down?

 New York Jets

You heard it here first:

They will somehow make playoffs

And save Rex’s job.

New York Giants

Can take one more year

Before they shape up and win.

Third Championship.

Oakland

They are still lost in

A giant black hole in West.

Where will they finish?

Philadelphia

Kelly’s new offense

Will be a flop in this league.

Won’t win more than five.

Pittsburgh

Will compete again,

With infusion of talent.

And sweep Baltimore.

San Diego

This will be last year

Rivers plays for them, and then

They’ll draft new QB.

San Francisco

They look amazing.

They will live up to their hype

And will win it all.

Seattle

Won’t live up to hype,

Sophomore slump for Wilson

And get passed by Rams.

St. Louis

Will take second place

In the division, but the

Offense will struggle.

Tampa Bay

Revis Island moved,

And that alone gives them hope.

Can’t beat Atlanta.

Tennessee

They will crash and burn;

And have to start rebuilding.

Enjoy Fitzpatrick.

Washington

If Griffin’s healthy

They could be great, but if not

They won’t fall apart.

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SF: 38

 

BAL: 21

 

I have to be honest, though:  I could see almost anything happening in this game.  Both teams are very unpredictable.  That might make it exciting, except that I’m almost completely indifferent to who wins.  I plan to root for San Francisco, solely because I like their colors.

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[To the tune of the Scottish folk song “Ye Jacobites By Name“.]

Ye Patriots by name, lend an ear, lend an ear,

 Ye Patriots by name, lend an ear,

 Ye Patriots by name,

 Your faults I will proclaim,

 Your gameplan I must blame, you shall hear.

(Chorus: “Ye Patriots by Name”, etc.)

When to Run, and When to Pass, by the chart, by the chart?

 When to Run, and When to Pass, by the chart?

 When to Run, and When to Pass?

Two throws for each run, alas,

 Against the league’s top class falls apart.

(Chorus: “Ye Patriots by Name”, etc.)

What makes defensive ends slow their pace, slow their pace?

 What makes defensive ends slow their pace?

 What makes defensive ends

 Unsure which threat to defend,

 And let your speedy friends out in space?

(Chorus: “Ye Patriots by Name”, etc.)

Then leave some plays un-thrown, and shift gears, and shift gears

 Then leave some plays un-thrown, and shift gears.

 So leave some plays un-thrown,

 Don’t give up on the run,

 And titles you’d have won last two years.

(Chorus: “Ye Patriots by Name”, etc.)

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He’s a good coach, sure, but it’s not like he’s in a class by himself.  He hasn’t even won a championship.  Seems to me that most of his team’s success is built on their superior speed, which is not going to work at the pro level, where there is less difference between players’ abilities.

There was big article by Tim Livingston a few months ago about how awesome Kelly is. It’s a good article,  but it doesn’t convince me that he is going to change the game.  So he understands statistics and probability; as Livingston himself notes, Bill Belichick has been doing the same thing for years, and it’s won him a lot of games. But it’s also far from infallible.

Here’s how I see it: Kelly knows the probabilities better than most coaches, and in most games, has the talent to execute plays flawlessly against less gifted opponents.  Against equal opposition, it may still provide a slight advantage, but there is no special reason for thinking that Kelly’s pro players will necessarily be able to out-perform their opponents.

In other words, Kelly has made following the probabilities look like more of magic formula than it is by defeating second-tier college teams.  Am I wrong?

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Football season is upon us!  It’s only pre-season, but still!  Therefore I have prepared some poetry for the occasion.  I wanted to do more haiku since my political ones were pretty popular, and I got the idea to do a football-themed set from Gregg Easterbrook.  Some of them contain an actual prediction, some just make a lousy pun, but all of them contain 5-7-5 syllable goodness!

Atlanta

This will be the year

They win a postseason game.

But only the one.

Arizona

Two great receivers

Never get hands on the ball

If QB’s on ground.

Baltimore

Most boring good team

Will make playoffs, win, then lose.

Wash, rinse and repeat.

Buffalo

Upgraded defense.

But inconsistent passing

Will give the fans “Fitz”.

Carolina

“Cam will change the game”

Maybe so, but then again

We’ve heard that before.

Chicago

Will win division.

And if they can stay healthy

Will reach New Orleans.

Cincinnati
They ought to be good.

Yet, whenever we think that,

They always collapse.

Cleveland

They seem to have been

Re-rebuilding ever since

1999.

Dallas

Poor Dallas Cowboys:

With the biggest screen ever,

And a small window.

Denver

Broadway Joe the Ram

Unitas as a Charger

Condemned to repeat.

Detroit

Don’t blame Megatron;

‘Cover curse’, and their defense,

Put them in cellar.

Green Bay

Defense gets better

But offensive regression

Makes them a fifth seed.

Houston

Just who are these guys?

They lost Mario, but they’ll

Win the Lombardi.

Indianapolis

Well, with any Luck

They will be back into form

Come twenty-fourteen

Jacksonville

They’re gonna be bad.

Like, really, really awful.

As in, not too good.

Kansas City

They might be healthy

This year, and have a good chance

To win Division.

Miami

Major rebuilding.

The last time that they did that

They made the playoffs.

Minnesota

Is it just me who

Believes that “Christian Ponder”

Should be Tebow’s name?

New England

Impressive offense

Figures to run up the score.

Without the “running”.

New Orleans

Team’s united; there’s

No mutiny on bounty.

But still, no Captain.

 New York Jets

Should have signed Owens

And Moss and Ochocinco.

Would be great TV.

New York Giants

They look weak compared

To the Eagles and Cowboys.

Like they did last year.

Oakland

How’ll the West be won?

I don’t know, but it will not

Be by the Raiders.

Philadelphia

Unpredictable

They always surprise people.

Not this year–sixth seed.

Pittsburgh

They tried to Ward off

The ravages of time, but

It’s caught up to them.

San Diego

I think that Turner

Could lose all sixteen games and

Still not get fired.

San Francisco

Will regress a lot

And still win their division

But not NFC.

Seattle

Weird new uniforms

Make them the NFL’s Ducks:

Good, but not elite.

St. Louis

Could surprise some teams,

But Braford’s injury prone.

Can’t beat the Niners.

Tampa Bay

Like the G-Man says:

“Rise and Shine, Mr. Freeman”.

Wrong man in right place.

Tennessee

They appear destined

For second in division

And missing playoffs.

Washington

Griffin next Newton.

Puts up good numbers, but fails

To win seven games.

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Over at the Buffalo Bills fanblog “Buffalo Rumblings“, Aaron Lowinger wrote a counter-factual season preview/review of past Bills seasons; that is, a kind of historical fiction or “alternate reality” type of post.  I thought it was a cool idea, but the reaction from most of the site’s readers was pretty negative.  I can sort of see why, too, because even in Lowinger’s fantastic universe, the Bills are still seeking their first championship.  Enhanced misery is not what people want in their daydreams.

I really like the idea, though. I’d like to try it myself in fact.  Allow me, if I may, to borrow Lowinger’s (and Buffalo Rumblings editor Brian Galliford’s) idea, and try to make it into a happier one.  What follows is purely fictional–although it may be factual somewhere in the multiverse…

****

When the ball slipped through the fingers of their most reliable receiver this past January, it shattered many Bills fans’ hopes of doing something done only twice before: three championships in four years.  The Bills, coming off a franchise-best 14-2 regular-season record, had marched down the field for a touchdown to cut the upstart Jaguars’ lead to 31-29, but the two-point conversion fell short with only seconds remaining.

It was a rare miscue for a team accustomed to winning.  After their thrilling 31-28 O.T. win over Arizona in SB 43, the Bills had established a reputation as clutch winners.  Their improbable run to a 34-15 shellacking of that same Arizona team in SB 45 only cemented that reputation, with a thrilling 17-point rally to beat Indy in the divisional round, followed by Trent Edwards’ clutch drive to down favored Baltimore 27-24 in the conference final being the most notable examples.

January’s disappointment aside, the Bills remain a young team with all the major pieces in place for another championship run.  Although they lost star running back Steven Jackson in free-agency, they are confident that Spiller can fill his shoes.  The receiving corps remains intact, as does the offensive line. The addition of Asante Samuel to a strong secondary makes them arguably even more powerful than the #2 defensive unit that led them to their first championship.

****

Well, that was fun, right?  Or maybe not.  Is it just a sad reminder of how bad things are, or an uplifting diversion?  For, after all, sports themselves are meant to be an uplifting diversion.  They really aren’t much good if you let them make you sad.

P.S. Lowinger and Galliford–should you happen to read this, I hope you don’t mind me reworking your idea.  If you do, I’ll gladly take it down.  It’s not exactly Goethe reworking Marlowe’s stuff, but sometimes it pays to take more than one crack at an idea.