I have yet to read the book Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign, by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes. It sounds promising, though–full of interviews from campaign insiders giving first-hand accounts of what went wrong.
But the common thread coming out of reviews of the book, interviews with the authors like this one, and of Clinton campaign autopsies generally, is really ringing false to me. Or, maybe not exactly false, but at least woefully incomplete.
There are two main theories that have emerged as explanations for why Clinton lost. They are:
- The controversy surrounding her email server
- Her inability to connect with people
Both of these are valid explanations. But I have not seen anyone analyze how these two things are related; and moreover, why the mainstream political press did not realize it until after the election.
This requires further investigation. We will start by tackling point 2 first, since it is related to my favorite subject: the importance of charisma.
I firmly believe in the theory that charisma wins elections. And Hillary Clinton has been my go-to example of someone who does not have charisma for years now. (Note: lack of charisma is often described as “could not connect” or “was not likeable”.)
So, to that extent, I agree that Clinton lost because the voters could not connect with her the way they could with a charismatic billionaire television star who lives in a golden tower.
The problem is, everyone has known for years that Clinton doesn’t have charisma. It is not like this is some big revelation. This doesn’t mean the press is wrong to say that is the reason she lost… it is just that until election night, the press was right there with her, convinced she would win.
When the conventional wisdom was that Clinton would win, the mainstream political press dismissed concerns about her likeability. When Clinton suddenly lost, they picked up on this as the obvious explanation for why she did.
And maybe it is. But if that is the case, why didn’t the press seize on it sooner? This isn’t the first time we ever had an election–they should have some idea of what is likely to happen based on past elections. The charisma theory holds up pretty well over the past 50+ years of Presidential elections, so you would think there would have been more talk about it beforehand.
Part of it is the old “hindsight is 2020” problem. And another part of it is groupthink: Once a few experts started saying Clinton would win, a lot of other people assumed the experts would know, and started following them. (I myself was guilty of this–I ignored Trump’s obvious charisma advantage because so many of the major forecasters were favoring Clinton.)
There’s an even bigger problem with political journalism here, but I want to wait to examine that. For now, we can just say that it seems probable that Clinton could not connect with voters in 2016, since that had long been a problem for her.
Now to address the theory that it was not Clinton’s anti-charisma that cost her, but rather her email server–or more specifically, the FBI’s investigation of her email server. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has some convincing data indicating that it was FBI director Comey’s letter to Congress that swung the election to Trump.
Intuition seems to favor the “lack of charisma/could not connect” explanation; the hard data indicates that Comey’s letter was decisive.
Here is the significant thing, though: both explanations can be correct.
In truth, the letter was pretty mild. It cast a cloud of suspicion over Clinton and enabled Trump to ramp up the number of sinister insinuations he made about her, but that’s about it. Compared with the Access Hollywood tape which featured Trump literally admitting to a crime, it was small potatoes.
Yet the press hyped the Comey letter as though it were comparable. Why?
The answer is… charisma. Remember, charisma is the ability to make people want to like you, irrespective of anything you do.
Trump has charisma. That is why so many voters wanted to like him, and were willing to overlook so much to vote for him.
In contrast, Clinton does not have charisma and as a result many voters were glad to seize on any excuse to vote against her, even a trumped-up (pun not intended) one.
If the email thing had happened to Obama, he could have weathered it. It probably would not have even been front-page news.
By the same token, if it had not happened to Clinton, there would have been some other heavily-hyped scandal the press would have touted. Scandals make for good stories, and plenty of people wanted to read about the alleged crimes of Hillary Clinton. People were looking for an excuse to dislike Clinton.
Another key factor to remember is that charisma works on the press, too. They try to be neutral, but they are just human beings–their personal feelings about a candidate are going to affect their coverage. So,if they are covering somebody who is uncharismatic, they are going to include that in their narrative, even if only subconsciously.
This is leading me to that bigger problem that I mentioned earlier, and it has to do with how the press covers everything. The problem is that they need to have a simple answer for everything. They cannot say, “we do not understand what happened”. They have to come up with some explanation, and it has to be something simple that they can explain quickly.
This does not just apply in politics, but to pretty much all mainstream press analysis of anything. I remember, as my liberal friends and I watched the election results in mounting horror, I kept thinking inexplicably about Super Bowl XXV.
If you are unfamiliar with football history, it went like this: the heavily-favored Buffalo Bills and their record-setting offense lost by a single point to the New York Giants and their strong defense. On the last play of the game, the Bills missed a field goal that would have given them the victory.
The “narrative” coming out of that game was that the Giants’ defense stifled the mighty Bills offense. (Then-Giants defensive coordinator Bill Belichick’s game plan is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame) But if the Bills had made the field goal, it would have been different–even though the Giants defensive performance would have been exactly the same.
The perception of both the Giants’ defense and the Bills’ offense was decided by the performance of neither unit, but by the Bills’ kicking game.
This does not mean that defense does not win championships, any more than the fact that Clinton winning the popular vote means charisma does not win elections. We have enough examples of both throughout history that it is fair to say it constitutes a pattern.
But the sporting press largely did not acknowledge that prior to the game, just as the political press didn’t acknowledge charisma’s strong track record prior to the election.
In each case, it took a specific event (a missed field goal/the Comey letter) before the press were able to recognize the larger pattern. (Defense wins championships/charisma wins elections.)
In other words, if a Clinton scandal did not exist, the press would have found it necessary to invent one.
The press does not analyze things as closely as they want you to think they do. They generally report on what happened and then seize on anything that seems convenient to explain why it happened.
(Another area where this is especially transparent is business and financial journalism. Most journalists have no idea what made the markets go up or down, unless there’s some major world-shattering event that makes it obvious. Most of the time they just make some guess that investors are optimistic or pessimistic based on same random bit of data that seems plausible.)
In general, the press wants their viewers to think they know what is going on. This makes sense, because the purpose of the press is to convey information. However, if you do not have all the information readily available, it is hard to know what is going on. This leaves journalists with two options: They can either admit they do not know what is going on, or they can spin some narrative that sounds plausible.
Option 1 is unattractive for a couple of reasons. First, it is always hard to admit you don’t know something people expect you to know. And second, suppose some rival press outfit does know what is going on. Then they might gain an edge in credibility and thus increase their audience.
Option 2 looks a lot better. If you do that, people come away thinking they learned something.
To most people, Option 2 sounds a lot like lying. But it’s not the same thing–most journalists aren’t deliberately making up lies; they’re just saying stuff that seems like it’s probably true. And most of the time, it is true. If it looks like a duck, and acts like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
But sometimes it is not a duck. Sometimes, it is a black swan. And when that happens, the press can look pretty stupid.
Trump and his campaign were so weird that it distracted the press from the fundamentals of politics. Trump’s charisma advantage got overlooked or minimized because everything else about him was in total opposition to the normal laws of politics.
This is the ultimate problem with the political press: once a narrative gets established they tend to disregard all information that contradicts that narrative, unless it becomes impossible.
But even once a narrative has been conclusively disproved, the press still has a hard time putting the pieces together and explaining why the narrative was wrong. Notice how, in the interview linked at the top of this post, Allen keeps coming back to the “email scandal” as the deciding factor. He is not completely wrong, since the emails led to the FBI investigation, but he has trouble putting it all in context.
The correct interpretation is that Clinton lost because her lack of charisma made many voters predisposed to dislike her, and the sensational coverage of the allegations about her email server–and the FBI’s investigation into it–turned enough swing voters against her.
This is a fairly straightforward explanation: Clinton’s lack of charisma was an ongoing problem throughout her career, and the email investigation was the catalyst that ignited the anti-Clinton sentiment that was created by her lack of charisma.
I think many journalists are reluctant to put it in these terms however, since according to this interpretation, they were accessories to the loss because of how they covered the email investigation.