I keep seeing these news stories about how various demographics voted; the surprisingly high number of Latinos voting for Trump, the number of millennials who voted for Clinton, etc.
Why do the pollsters and journalists seem so confident of these numbers? It’s a secret ballot.
Yes, I know they do exit polls. But after the entrance polls were shown to be wildly inaccurate, why are the journalists assuming that the exit polls are accurate?
As an old science teacher of mine told me once when I was conducting a survey for a class project: “the problem with surveys is that people lie their butts off”.
(I wish I could talk to him right now–he was a blunt, gruff, brilliant man. I bet he’d have some interesting things to say about this election. But I digress.)
Moreover, people who do exit polls obviously don’t talk to everyone who votes. I know this because I voted, and there was no one standing there to ask me how I voted afterward. (For whatever it’s worth, I voted in a very pro-Trump area. It seems quite probable to me there were fewer exit polls conducted in such areas.)
Now, I know all about “representative samples” and so on. I aced Introductory Stats in college, so I’m familiar with the subject. And I don’t see any reason why, when the experts got things so disastrously wrong beforehand, I should be expected to believe they are not still getting them disastrously wrong now.